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Nov 2012, Vol 130, No. 11 >

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Research Letters | Nov 2012

Projecting the Growth of Cataract Surgery During the Next 25 Years

Wendy V. Hatch, OD, MSc; Erica de L. Campbell, MD, MHA; Chaim M. Bell, MD, PhD, FRCPC; Sherif R. El-Defrawy, MD, PhD, FRCSC; Robert J. Campbell, MD, MSc, FRCSC
Arch Ophthalmol. 2012;130(11):1479-1481. doi:10.1001/archophthalmol.2012.838.
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Cataract surgery is the most frequent surgical procedure performed in many countries, providing significant improvements in quality of life to seniors at a low cost.1- 2 While the aging population is expected to burden all areas of health care, ophthalmologists provide approximately 90% of their procedure-based services to seniors, making this specialty particularly vulnerable.3 Further, among surgical specialties, ophthalmology will experience the greatest growth in demand for services in coming years.3- 4 As a result, projecting future cataract surgery needs is vital for health human resource, hospital, and surgical center management and planning. However, in many jurisdictions including the United States, predicting the number of operations needed to meet population demand is difficult because of a lack of population-based surgery data and because unmet demand—as reflected by growing wait times—is generally unknown.
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Figure 1. Projected cataract surgery procedures in Ontario, Canada, using 2004 (before Wait Time Strategy [WTS]) and 2006 (during WTS) base surgery rates, each in combination with low, medium, and high population growth projections. The 2006 data are actual numbers of cases carried out.

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Figure 2. Projected cataract surgery procedures in Ontario, Canada, by age group. Projections are based on 2006 surgery rates (during Wait Time Strategy; appropriate for population demand) and medium population growth projections. The 2006 data are actual numbers of procedures carried out.

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